7/8/09
Live Blog 3PM
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Raptor Moneyball
Why is Bryan spending all this money with a cap about to take a nose dive. I am sorry but I fail to see the logic. I understand you lock up Bargnani for a reasonable rate for a long time I get that. However given the dropping cap and the fact Bargnani realistically has not had back to back solid seasons yet in his NBA career. You add this to the 53 million for Hedo and the 45 + they spent on Jose. If the plan is to keep Chris Bosh it sure isn't looking that way. Where is the money to resign him? Also what else could you afford if you are able to resign him. If the drops in the ESPN Article are any where close to accurate this makes it seem bleak that Bosh could re-sign and the Raptors be competitive.
This is all under the assumption that MLSE will stick to the commitment they have always had to stay below the tax threshold which will be dropping at that same alarming rate. If the Raptors do have a long term plan that involves not being concerned with that tax threshold I would have no issue with Hedo's deal or the extension to Andrea. Both are risky to some degree but I could live with it. However does anyone seriously expect MLSE to have such a 180 in policy and suddenly go for broke. Not in the literal sense but risk a small amount of their bottom line to do this? I have no confidence or info to suggest that they would.
Some fans are just seeing the short term picture and not the long term one in my view. Let me but it in some kind of context. If you became aware that the company you were working for planned to cut jobs in the next 2 years what would you do? Would you go out and buy a new car, new house and add to your stock portfolio? Most would save out of fear they may lose there job or lose hours. So why would the Raptors go on a spending spree when they can see that their cap and budget are heading down. It does not make any sense.
Raptors better win this season because this maybe the last chance to do so in a long time unless there is some cosmic shift in the NBA Cap or the thinking at MLSE. I admit that I took economics from my high school football coach. However I don't think you need to have a vast economic background to understand that Raptors are taking some serious long term risk.
Some may conclude that Bryan Colangelo is already hard at work planing for the post Bosh era. I don't want to believe this fact but the numbers are painting a picture that sure suggests it. About the only thing that is making me think positive about the Raps is Demar Derozan. This kid was Tweeting about practice yesterday...Not a game...No Practice. Now with all due respect to AI, when a young kid is putting in work like this it gets me excited about his future. Here is hoping that Demar is rip down rims in Vegas starting Friday.
Still have yet to hear on a Hedo presser. When it goes down I will set up a live blog. Last but not least the Dallas and Marion Sign and Trade has a sticking point as you might of heard. The Mavs don't want Marcus Banks. Is Banks truly the one guy in the league that no one truly wants. He gets passed around like he has the plague. You can't help but feel bad for him.
Not in the same way you would for Michael Jackson's little girl yesterday which was truly so sad. On a much smaller stage, at about 2 years older, I spoke at my own father's funeral. The courage in that little girl to do that is far greater than any NBA player. Stuff like that puts all this basketball talk, good, bad or indifferent into prospective. I am still upset about all of this but have it in the proper prospective.
7/7/09
Colangelo Attempts To Afford Extra Toppings
Still no announcement on when we will have the official announcement of Hedo signing. Wednesday or Thursday will likely be the day. I will set up a live blog to cover the Press Conference as it happens. It may be a last minute thing so check for updates here on the site or on my Twitter Feed @dinonationblog .
Just for fun my 5 favourite places to get a Pizza from:
5. Pizza Pizza
4. Dominos
3. Make My Own At Home
2. Pizza Hut
1 The Attic (Stoney Creek,Ontario Restaurant)
Favourite Toppings?
5 Italian Sausage
4. Salami
3. Pepperoni
2. Extra/Double Cheese
1. BACON
I figure given the events of today not to many people will be focused on basketball so thought I would keep things light and fun. If any news breaks in terms of a sign and trade or anything of note for the Raptors check back in here at DNB. Also remember as I mentioned going to do a live blog on Cover It Live for the Hedo Presser so look for that and we can also make it a fun chance to chat Raptors.
Just a funny personal note to close. Believe it or not I never had Pizza until I was 13 years old. When I was a kid I would take Peanut Butter and Jelly sandwich to Pizza Parties. As a kid I never liked things mixed together I would even separate mixed vegetables . We all have strange little things like that from our childhood don't we? Anyway there is another useless Dino Blogger fact to add to the list.
7/6/09
Different Actors But Same Movie For Raptors?
I hear and read all of this talk about how great this is that we landed a high end free agent. It is only great if it works, if it doesn't it really means nothing. In fact honestly I question if it even means anything at all in terms of North American players. Does the fact we signed Hedo make the next Trevor Ariza type free agent sign in Toronto. Ariza in case you forgot or did not hear was offered allegedly 9 million more to come to Toronto and passed. Does that change this from happening again? Not unless the Raptor become a consistent and winning team.
In fact, I think the success of Demar DeRozan could have more impact on getting North American free agents than a Hedo signing. If DeRozan lives up to his promise and becomes a star and remains in Toronto that will do more for attracting free agents than anything. If a kid who grew up in Compton California gives Toronto a stamp of approval that will speak louder than any Euro player signing in Toronto in terms of North American talent. There would be a certain street cred about that. It is not to say that Vince Carter or Chris Bosh don't have that. But it is different. Dallas and Florida are not anything close to where DeRozan comes from. I may have watched Boyz In The Hood one to many times. However I think it would be something that might change attitudes about players coming to Toronto. It just a theory but I think it might have some merit.
But signing a Euro based player beyond improving the on the court product will have little to no impact on free agency in the future. The Raptors in the end regardless of what it does for future free agency may have given up far to much to sign Hedo. They will need to hit some major league home runs in terms of signing guys to minimum deals. As I suggested perhaps a guy or maybe even 2 on the summer league roster would have to get signed and make an impact in some small way.
The depth of this team is truly lacking and I am not convinced this is something Bryan Colangelo has some magic answer for. A sign and trade for Marion is extremely unlikely with the Magic. If the Raptors have no mid level exception they are really screwed in terms of adding depth. This team to me would enter the season in the same position it did last year in terms of being just one injury away from certain doom. If any play 1-3 goes down the Raptors could be totally screwed.
The one thing I can bet you won't here from Bryan Colangelo that this is the best roster he has had since he has been here. I think he learned his lesson on that last year. But it seems he has not when it comes to building depth on this team. Honestly I don't like to come off as the voice of doom. In fact, unlike some writers and bloggers, I really hope that I am wrong. I want to see the Raptors do well and succeed. If that happens to make me wrong about some things I can live with that. But I never write anything that I don't believe to be true from my prospective. That was the lesson I learned from the Jermaine O'Neal trade. I hated it from the start and would allow myself to be swayed. Well not this time. This is a bad contract and it does not address enough to out weigh the problems it creates. All this being said I do think the Raps will be a playoff team. But as I said a few days ago the goal is suppose to be Championships not Playoff appearances.
7/5/09
Raptors Gamble For The Short Term
Pg- Jose Calderon
Sg- Demar DeRozan
Sf- Hedo Turkoglu
Pf- Chris Bosh
C- Andrea Bargnani
The issue becomes the bench or lack of one. First concern on that list is one we had last year. Back up point guard. What the Raptors should have learned is that Jose Calderon can be a starter but not for extended minutes. There over use of Calderon at least did not help his injury issues. Roko Ukic did not make anyone feel confident enough that he is ready to be a back up. So you would think that B.C still needs to be hunting for a legit option to back up Jose. Not just be hopeful that Ukic improves to a level he can handle the back up roll on a consistent basis. The Raptors do have Marcus Banks but no one expects anything from him and if the Raps can't pawn him off on a team you have to figure they will buy him out.
Shooting guard you have your under 20 year old draft pick in Demar DeRozan and he as of now looks to be your starter at shooting guard. Now Bryan Colangelo did say the Quincy Douby had been doing very well in workouts in Vegas since the season ended. We will get to see how he does in Vegas Summer League and get our first look at DeRozan as well. In what I have got to know of Demar DeRozan he is a confident young man and he may just surprise us and be able to handle all of this. But to have a rookie be responsible for the majority of minutes at any position is a high risk scenario. It could also be high reward. But point being in Quincy Douby enough to back him up? likely not. Brent Petway, Carl English and Smush Parker could all be guys on the Raptors summer league roster that could see this lack of depth at shooting guard as opportunity. English and Parker more a pg/sg option and Petway more a sg/sf.
By the way case you were wondering here is the Raptors Summer League Schedule:
Friday, July 10 | L.A. Lakers | 8:00 p.m. |
Saturday, July 11 | Detroit | 4:00 p.m. |
Monday, July 13 | Portland | 8:00 p.m. |
Wednesday, July 15 | Milwaukee | 4:00 p.m. |
Thursday, July 16 | Phoenix | 4:00 p.m. |
Where the Raptors have the most depth is in big people. Not that many are proven talents beyond the first 3 in Evans, Bargnani and Bosh. Humphries has had many chances and really never taken them and run with them. O'Bryant is loved more about his measurables than his actual production. Nathan Jawai had a disappointing rookie season. There is some hope in regards to him with some of the performances he has had with the Aussie National team. However as a group they all have a ton to prove.
I keep hearing how Bryan Colangelo is not done in this make over process. However I think at the end of the day he has shuffled the deck but may have some of the same problems in terms of lack of depth. He will be counting on a lot of people to come through for him. At the top of that list is Demar DeRozan followed by Roko Ukic if he can not find a legit option as a back up point guard.
The Raptor feel that a number of players could fall through the cracks and they can sign them to cheap contracts to address the depth questions. It is risky to play that game. But Bryan Colangelo is a risk taker and that will never change. I have always liked that about him but maybe as I get older I don't have the stomach for it as much as I use too.
It is hard to judge a picture that is only half painted as to if you like it or not. The one thing I can say is the Raptors have clearly lost sight of the long term picture in order to save this team in the short term. It is a big change from the Rob Babcock days. You could argue, he had no clue in the short or long term. But the point is Babcock always seemed to hesitate to make a move and be aggressive. Bryan Colangelo is the exact opposite. If this was a poker game Colangelo would be going all in and he does it with no hesitation at all. The question I have is he going in with a good enough hand to win? It is clear that some teams in the East fell they have added some Aces to their deck. Shaq, V.C and others all making the top teams better according to most.
I want to make it clear, in the short term I am not saying this was a bad move at all. In fact it is likely enough to get this team to the playoffs again. But when Bryan Colangelo came, I believe the goal was to win Championships? On that front when you look at the long term, have the Raptors taken steps in the right direction for that? I am very skeptical on that front. If the Raptors stick to the party line of staying under the tax threshold over the next several years it seems very hard to figure how it all would work money wise.
The way things have been lately it is not just sports teams that will need a capologist people writing and talking about the team might need one as well. That is my thoughts for the weekend. See you Monday.
7/3/09
A 50 Million Dollar Pizza...NO THANKS
Last season I sat back and went with the flow and said sure J.O, why not. A year later I am wiser for it. This move will hurt the Raptors in a terrible way in the long term. A shrinking cap only makes it worse in the long term. There is no reasonable reason to think the NBA Cap will rise in the next 2 seasons. This deal will only get worse as time marches on. This also marks the end for Shawn Marion, Anthony Parker and Joey Graham. I can't say I will miss the last guy on that list at all. In fact after I calm down about this bad contract it will sink in that Joey Graham is out of my life!!!
This move smacks of desperation. But if the intention was to get Chris Bosh on board at least via twitter he seems happy about it.
@chrisbosh- IF IT'S TRUE..Let's get it cracking H Turk!!!
But this fits what Chris has been saying. He is focused on the here and now. But how the heck does this team move forward with him? You got Jose making a major amount of cash with his contract. Bargnani eventual needs to get paid. Now Hedo as well. If Bosh is to get a Max deal can this really happen? It would seem highly unlikely.
This deal seems like a huge risk that Bryan Colangelo has taken on. That being said does anyone think this move makes the Raptors a contender in the East? I will admit it should make them a playoff team. But I am not even sure if it takes them past the first round.
I need to sleep on this but I can't imagine my thoughts will change much. This is a night that some will cheer but they are not seeing the big picture. In the big picture this could be a move that may be one the worst in this team's history. Not a Vince Carter trade bad. But Bad. Think back to the re-signing of Williams, Williams and Davis. People cheered then. Even the NBA commissioner David Stern praised the Raptors off-season as huge step in the right direction. It would turn out to be the exact opposite.
It is not that I dislike Hedo and do not see him as a player that can do things and have value. He was a part of a team that went to the NBA finals. But for this money and this long I can not endorse this in any way shape or form. To much and to long.
Same Old Problem
People outside of Canada do not always get why Raptor fans get so bent out of shape. The things like this latest episode with Ariza is why. People always say they love the City of Toronto in the NBA. Is it a case of it is a nice place to visit but I wouldn't want to live there/play there? I try my best to refuse to believe that but how many times to you need get smacked down before you start to believe it. John Salmons who is far from an All-Star snubbed the Raptors for the Sacramento Kings. Now this with Ariza. It is just two examples of a long list of people that have passed on Toronto. Kenny Anderson refused to come here for an old school example.
Toronto has first class fans and they deserve a first class team. If Bryan Colangelo can not get guys to come here, really can anyone ever do it? Colangelo is a well respect G.M and has won an award for being the best at what he does twice. Forget about if Chris Bosh leaves. What about if B.C leaves. I know if I was him I would be frustrated by all of this. I mean he has tried to make it work. But if he ultimately loses Chris Bosh could it be long before he himself is lost as well. Not saying he gets fired saying he may want to walk himself.
I have a really bad feeling about the season ahead. I do have one little bit of hope. More a selfish one. That is for Brent Petway, I had him as a guest in the Spring and being an Ex-Wolverine that was a big thrill. I am hoping he has a excellent summer league and some how can crack this Raptor Roster. While all these free agent misses are not good news for me. In terms of Brent it is good news as he could be a very inexpensive option for the Raptors to play at the wing. Brent has spent the last couple seasons with the Idaho Stampede and is still trying to find a way to break into the NBA. Demar Derozan vs Brent Petway will make for entertaining dunk contests in Raptor practices for sure.
Summer League Roster From Raps.com
So there is always a bright side for somebody. However, in the big picture for the Raptors I am very depressed and very concerned and with good reason to be so in the future for Raptors.