Draft Workouts Begin In Raptorland

Nothing like starting off Day 1 of Raptor draft workouts with a bang. Both Brandon Knight and Kemba Walker will be here. Not at the same workout though. Agents would never let that happen. But if the Raptors decide to go point guard it is a safe bet it will be Knight or Walker that they select. It is a lock that one of them at least should be there at number 5. When you consider Cleveland has 2 of the first four picks and Minnesota will not be taking a point guard for sure. Well it is Minnesota so anything is possible but seriously no chance they will. Cleveland will not draft two point guards either so that means at least one of Walker or Knight will be there. If it is both the Raptors will have a choice to make.

This is all assuming the Raptors stay at number five. The idea of trading back could be an appealing one for that Raptors assuming they are not that in love with either point guard. But if the Raptors stay at number five I said even back before we knew where they would pick that if Raptors were not in the top three and kept that pick they would select Kemba Walker. A lot gets made of these workouts, but to me they are really just the final stage to confirming that you are comfortable with taking a player. Workouts as we have seen in the NFL can be misleading.

Even going back to around the time of the NCAA Tournament I had a feeling Walker would be high on the Raptors list. Demar DeRozan seems a fan of him and he mentioned that both he and Ed Davis no Kemba pretty well as they came out in the same H.S Class together going to all the various All-Star Games and getting to know each other. That can't be erased like an NCAA Football championship from DeRozan's former school USC. Kemba Walker and his NCAA title are in the books and on the record.

Walker not only lead UConn on a run in the NCAA Tournament to win the title, he took them on a 6 game run to win the Big East title as well. He won the award as the top point guard in all of college basketball. Irving likely would have won the award but an injury sidelined him most of the year. Walker like DeRozan came on late in the year and has been on the steady climb up mock draft boards. If we are talking in February 2011 there is no way Walker is being picked this high. But combine his play with the draft class shrinking due to the lockout looming and he is in the mix to be a top 5 pick.

Size and the fact he is a shoot first ask questions later point guard are the main knocks against him. Some make the comparison to Allen Iverson but not nearly as talented or as good a shooter. That all being said there is something to be said for a guy that wins games that matter in the toughest conference tournament and then the NCAA Tournament. I see him a lot like a guy like T.J Ford coming out of Texas. Smaller but a fast guy that can get in the paint and can at times be a good shooter but lacks consistency.

Brandon Knight has the fact that he plays for a coach that just happened to coach the reigning MVP of the NBA at the point guard position. That was back at Memphis but now John Calipari has taken his show to Kentucky and there he had another star in John Wall. Knight is no where near Wall or Rose. But he has worked under the same coach in the same system. While people may question his tactics in terms of recruiting and if it is on the level. No on can deny that Calipari has had a ton of success getting players into the next level and having them succeed for the teams that draft them.

If it comes down to one or the other. It seems that if you want the safe pick you take Knight. If you want to take a risk and get the player with the higher upside than you take Walker. Regardless of who the Raptors take unless Bryan Colangelo can work a miracle and trade Jose Calderon it would appear that Walker or Knight will have to share time with him. Calderon for as much as he gets hammered for his defence is still a very talented and experienced guy on the other end of the floor. He will be able to help Walker or Knight tremendously and make their learning curve for the NBA a lot easier. Just don't ask him about how to defend the position. But for a guy like Walker that has a knock of being a shoot first guy having a guy like Calderon that is his opposite should be helpful.

If the Raptors stay at the number five spot I find it hard to imagine they will not select one of these two guys. Bryan Colangelo had stated the Raptors have their draft list down to 8 guys that they are focused in on at the 5th pick. It is a no brainer that Knight and Walker are at the top of that list of 8. Today the Raptors will get to see both one in the morning and one in the afternoon. So to evaluate them in the same day should make it crystal clear for the Raptors on who they like better. But if one or the other is selected before the 5th pick we may never know who that guy was.

Colangelo also made mention of wanting to try to find a 2nd pick in the top 10. This opens up the door to the idea of the Raptors making a play for Tristan Thompson. If it is not for that purpose may God have mercy on the soul of the kid they do select and Colangelo if in fact Thompson ends up the better player. Everyone to a man seems to think that Tristan Thompson if the draft order does not change will be going to the Bucks at #11.

To find out where all these guys go, I am pleased to announce that the DNB will be teaming up with our friends at St. Louis Wings to have a draft party. The draft takes place on June 23rd which is a Thursday. So clear your calender and make plans to join us. I hope to have all the details worked out by this Thursday. If you came to our Unwelcome Back Bosh party you know what a fun atmosphere it is at St Louis Wings and hopefully you will want to come out again. If you missed our Bosh Party well this is your chance to come out and have some fun with us again. Stay tuned to the blog and on Twitter @Dinonationblog and @StLouisWings for details on the event.

Picking and Playing The Lotto.

Happy Monday people, before we get to some draft lottery stuff we need get our Conference Finals Picks on the record. So.....

James and Ryan both see it the same....Heat and Thunder both win in 6 games.

I am 8 wins away from nailing the finals in the pre-season. I had said it would be a Thunder vs Heat final long before it became the cool thing to do. But that being said the South Beach Heat took it on the chin yesterday. After a good first quarter the Heat got steam rolled despite a great game from Chris Bosh who was the games leading scorer with 30 points going 12-18 from field and 6-6 at the line. D-Wade and LBJ only combined for 33 though and Derrick Rose the MVP had 28. Bulls took it in Game 1 by a score of 102-83. OKC and Dallas tip up game 1 of the Western Conference Final after the Draft Lottery Tuesday.

So speaking of that Draft Lottery it is time for the DNB Draft Lottery Simulation. We are going to simulate the Draft Lottery 100 times and give you the results. You can give it a go yourself as many times as you like thanks to the folks at ESPN. Here is a link to simulate your own Draft Lottery.

What Pick Raptors Will Get?

• 1st Pick- 18%
• 2nd Pick- 17%
• 3rd Pick- 17%
• 4th Pick- 21%
• 5th Pick- 24%
• 6th Pick- 3%

The Raptors in our Simulation of 100 times beat there actual Lottery Odds of 15.6%. Most believe in the fan base if the Raptors landed that first pick they would select Kyrie Irving but according to ESPN and our 100 Simulations using there Lottery Simulator there is 0 outcomes where the Raptors land Irving and they also say the Raptors will select Derrick Williams out of Arizona with the first pick. He would fill a need for Raptors at Small Forward likely there biggest position of need. But in school he was a power forward and you would be asking him to change positions. In our 100 Simulations there is only 4 players the Raptors would select. Here they are with the % of times they came up as the Raptors pick.

• Derrick Williams- 30%
• Enes Kanter- 28%
• Brandon Knight- 26%
• Kawhi Lenoard- 16%

Of note even at 6 spot the Raptors would not take Kemba Walker. It seems obvious that ESPN feels the Raptors are not interested in drafting a point guard position. But many closer to this team would tend to disagree with that assessment. While it is true that Raptors do need a small forward it seems unlikely to me that they would leave Irving on the board at number 1.

With all due respect to ESPN when I look at draft my first stop is Draft Express and here is where they Rank the 4 choices ESPN thinks will be Raptors just based on the best available talent.

• Williams (2nd)
• Kanter (8th)
• Knight (5th)
• Lenoard (11th)

While Irving is Ranked #1 and Kemba Walker a surprising 3rd. If we base it on the Draft Express Rankings here is 1-6 the possible places the Raptors could select.

• 1. Irving (PG Duke)
• 2. Williams (PF Arizona)
• 3. Walker (PG UConn)
• 4. Valanciunas (C- Lithuania)
• 5. Knight ( PG/SG Kentucky)
• 6. Vesely ( SF/PF Czech Republic)

However you care to break it down there is no Lebron James or Blake Griffin walking across that stage in New York regardless of who wins the lottery. If you are wondering about Tristan Thompson and how the Raptors could find him in the draft. It would take a pick that is higher than 11 according to ESPN unless the Bucks hit the Lottery because he was the selection of the Bucks every time it seemed when I was running the simulations. According to Draft Express Thompson ranks 14. So if Raptors were trading down to land the home grown talent it would take a pick still in the lottery to do it most likely. But it is unlikely the Raptors would do that you would think given Thompson is an undersized power forward and that is not a need for this Raptor team. If the Raptors do go point guard in this draft what will that mean for the chances of Myck Kabongo being a Raptor next season? Make those odds slim you would think. Kabongo is likely on the same path as Thompson and Joesph who both played just a year at Texas and then bolted for the Draft. If the Raptors want a shot at him they would need to be back in this Lottery next year that promises to have a much more talented cast of characters.

So get your popcorn ready for tomorrow night and watch 30 minutes of bad T.V to find out where the Raptors will be picking. As for the who they will be picking or if they even keep the pick that will play out over the next month or so. If you are looking for a saviour out of this draft you will be very disappointed.