Picking and Playing The Lotto.

Happy Monday people, before we get to some draft lottery stuff we need get our Conference Finals Picks on the record. So.....

James and Ryan both see it the same....Heat and Thunder both win in 6 games.

I am 8 wins away from nailing the finals in the pre-season. I had said it would be a Thunder vs Heat final long before it became the cool thing to do. But that being said the South Beach Heat took it on the chin yesterday. After a good first quarter the Heat got steam rolled despite a great game from Chris Bosh who was the games leading scorer with 30 points going 12-18 from field and 6-6 at the line. D-Wade and LBJ only combined for 33 though and Derrick Rose the MVP had 28. Bulls took it in Game 1 by a score of 102-83. OKC and Dallas tip up game 1 of the Western Conference Final after the Draft Lottery Tuesday.

So speaking of that Draft Lottery it is time for the DNB Draft Lottery Simulation. We are going to simulate the Draft Lottery 100 times and give you the results. You can give it a go yourself as many times as you like thanks to the folks at ESPN. Here is a link to simulate your own Draft Lottery.

What Pick Raptors Will Get?

• 1st Pick- 18%
• 2nd Pick- 17%
• 3rd Pick- 17%
• 4th Pick- 21%
• 5th Pick- 24%
• 6th Pick- 3%

The Raptors in our Simulation of 100 times beat there actual Lottery Odds of 15.6%. Most believe in the fan base if the Raptors landed that first pick they would select Kyrie Irving but according to ESPN and our 100 Simulations using there Lottery Simulator there is 0 outcomes where the Raptors land Irving and they also say the Raptors will select Derrick Williams out of Arizona with the first pick. He would fill a need for Raptors at Small Forward likely there biggest position of need. But in school he was a power forward and you would be asking him to change positions. In our 100 Simulations there is only 4 players the Raptors would select. Here they are with the % of times they came up as the Raptors pick.

• Derrick Williams- 30%
• Enes Kanter- 28%
• Brandon Knight- 26%
• Kawhi Lenoard- 16%

Of note even at 6 spot the Raptors would not take Kemba Walker. It seems obvious that ESPN feels the Raptors are not interested in drafting a point guard position. But many closer to this team would tend to disagree with that assessment. While it is true that Raptors do need a small forward it seems unlikely to me that they would leave Irving on the board at number 1.

With all due respect to ESPN when I look at draft my first stop is Draft Express and here is where they Rank the 4 choices ESPN thinks will be Raptors just based on the best available talent.

• Williams (2nd)
• Kanter (8th)
• Knight (5th)
• Lenoard (11th)

While Irving is Ranked #1 and Kemba Walker a surprising 3rd. If we base it on the Draft Express Rankings here is 1-6 the possible places the Raptors could select.

• 1. Irving (PG Duke)
• 2. Williams (PF Arizona)
• 3. Walker (PG UConn)
• 4. Valanciunas (C- Lithuania)
• 5. Knight ( PG/SG Kentucky)
• 6. Vesely ( SF/PF Czech Republic)

However you care to break it down there is no Lebron James or Blake Griffin walking across that stage in New York regardless of who wins the lottery. If you are wondering about Tristan Thompson and how the Raptors could find him in the draft. It would take a pick that is higher than 11 according to ESPN unless the Bucks hit the Lottery because he was the selection of the Bucks every time it seemed when I was running the simulations. According to Draft Express Thompson ranks 14. So if Raptors were trading down to land the home grown talent it would take a pick still in the lottery to do it most likely. But it is unlikely the Raptors would do that you would think given Thompson is an undersized power forward and that is not a need for this Raptor team. If the Raptors do go point guard in this draft what will that mean for the chances of Myck Kabongo being a Raptor next season? Make those odds slim you would think. Kabongo is likely on the same path as Thompson and Joesph who both played just a year at Texas and then bolted for the Draft. If the Raptors want a shot at him they would need to be back in this Lottery next year that promises to have a much more talented cast of characters.

So get your popcorn ready for tomorrow night and watch 30 minutes of bad T.V to find out where the Raptors will be picking. As for the who they will be picking or if they even keep the pick that will play out over the next month or so. If you are looking for a saviour out of this draft you will be very disappointed.

Get Your Tickets Lottery Tuesday

First off an apology we had mix-up yesterday with the blog. Normally Ryan does his Top 10 feature and as such I decided to take the day off. Ryan was not available though so my apologies to you all. But were back and talking about all those lottery balls some of you were cheering for at the end of the season. The NBA Lottery takes place on Tuesday and the Raptors in their history have been participants far to many times for peoples liking. 16 seasons minus 5 playoff appearances make this the 11th time the Raptors will be a part of the NBA Lottery. They have won it officially once but technically twice. There was the Allen Iverson year that technically the Raptors had won the lottery but based on the agreement they signed to enter the league were unable to select one and ended up settling for Marcus Camby. Now Isiah Thomas claims that Camby would have been his pick at number 1 anyway. I know believing what Thomas says for some is hard, but to be honest with Damon Stoudamire coming off the Rookie of the Year I tend to believe him. The Raptors also were in bad need of a big man at the time. The other time the Raptors won was of course the Andrea Bargnani draft in which the Raptors took Italian number one making him the first ever European to be selected as such.

Much like that draft class Bargnani was a part of this one is just as bad if not worse on paper. Irving out of Duke is expected to be the number one pick in this class that is clearly lacking star power. That fact has also caused both Tristan Thompson and Cory Joesph to jump into this draft as well. Sad news for Raptor fans that were hoping to see them turn in Texas burnt orange for Raptor red and white. It would seem unlikely that either fit in the Raptors plans for the draft. Thompson being an undersized 4 is one of many at that position that probably don't make a ton of sense for the Raptors. A big reason for that is the performance of Ed Davis who slipped to the Raptors last year in the draft. Amir Johnson has a long term deal and Davis has been good enough to think the Raptors are set at power forward. You also have Reggie Evans who at least seems willing to return if wanted.

We still have no idea who will be running the Raptors draft but regardless of who it is the fact remains that Raptors if there is one position they can feel somewhat confident in what they have it is power forward. Not that anyone is making the position better than the guy that held that position for 7 years in Chris Bosh. But there is no dynamic player in this draft class "like a Bosh". You could make a strong case that if the Raptors don't win the lottery outright they may feel happy and justified to get out of the draft altogether. Whoever the Raptors would take at the other possible positions would not be worth the rookie contracts they would sign. That is important to note because under a new and expected to be more restrictive CBA to be over paying on rookies not worth the value of their deals could be costly. The draft is the last event of the current CBA so it would be unlikely you see those values change (for this draft) under a new agreement. In fact I am almost certain they can't. But not 100% certain. If the Raptors don't win on Tuesday it would seem likely they try to package the pick and tie it to Bargnani or Calderon for a trade. But that may also be difficult as teams may not want to risk taking on their significant salaries going into that CBA as I just mentioned is expected to be more restrictive.

If Colangelo is not running the show it is expected or at least rumoured (was a story on Yahoo) that Wayne Emery would once again step in and run the show on a temporary basis. He did the same when the Raptors finally showed Rob Babcock the door. He actually did a decent job in his short time at helm. He was able to unload Jalen Rose on the Knicks and set up the cap flexibility that Colangelo enjoyed when he arrived on the scene. That being said the fact the Raptors have just left this whole situation of who is actually in charge of things up in the air is a total joke. Safe bet to say we will not see Colangelo representing the Raptors at the Draft Lottery. I mean how could he given his uncertain future with the club.

The Raptors are not in a great situation no matter how it plays out. If the Raptors were to win the Draft Lottery and select the expected number one pick in Irving that would almost certainly make the Raptors out of the mix in terms of Myck Kabongo in next seasons draft. Kabongo will be playing his freshman year at Texas next season. In the people I have talked with, some of those being NBA Players, seem to be a believe that he is the most talented of that Texas/Toronto Trio. So to just assume he will be in next seasons draft is not much of a stretch. Irving also a point guard would make it a very interesting situation with Calderon and Bayless also currently on the roster. It is hard enough in this league to have two guys that believe they are capable of being the starter let alone three. That being said if the Raptors win the lottery trading the 1st pick seems unlikely. 1993 was the last time it happened when the Magic who had won the draft lottery two years in a row and drafted Shaq the year prior traded Chris Webber to Golden State after selecting him number one overall. But anything other than number one for the Raptors it is likely the pick is very much in play you would think.

Bottom line there is no Lebron James, Shaq or Yao Ming that can drastically change a franchise in this draft. Not even a John Wall or Blake Griffin. The Raptors have the bad luck of being very bad at the worst times it would seem.