Ping Pong Ball Playoffs Start Today

This is the time of year when lots of questions are asked. Like can I honestly endure seeing that Andrea Bargnani Primo Pasta ad anymore? I mean honestly can I? What also is up in the air is how many ping pong balls the Raptors will have. After that the all important question on who will go to the lottery and represent the Raptors? But before we answer all of those "important" questions, there is the matter of having 3 games left to play. All 3 games could have an impact on the playoffs or lottery standings. Detroit currently is a game behind the Raptors in the reverse lottery standings. If you are the type to root for ping pong balls nothing but a Raptor loss will do today. If the Raptors were to lose it would virtually clinch finishing in front of Detroit in terms of lottery balls.

The scariest thing for Tank Nation is the Raptors win today, Monday and Thursday. There are still a number of teams bunched together and the ping pong ball race might be more exciting than the Playoff Race at this point. After all who cares if the Jazz, Suns or Rockets get in only to lose to the Spurs or OKC. Does it really matter if it is the Bucks, Kincks or the Sixers facing the Bulls at the end of the day? Charlotte long ago wrapped up the most ping pong balls and will have the best shot at Anthony Davis with 25% chance of landing the expected number one pick. Bobcat fans will not be thrilled to learn that position has only grabbed the number one spot four times since 1985. Which is one of the many reasons why I question all of this tank nation business to begin with. Washington has almost locked up the number 2 position in the ping pong ball standings.

After that it gets interesting. My favourite to win the NBA Lottery, the no longer league owned, and soon to no longer be Hornets. My favourite mascot next to the Raptor is going to be no more. Hugo the Hornet will be missed. Still he was had lots to cheer about lately as Hornets have won 7 of their last 10 games and put the 3rd worst record up for grabs. They are tied with the soon to be Vancouver Kings? They know how to tank, going 1-9 in the last 10 down the stretch. What they don't know how to do in Sacramento is how to build a stadium or win basketball games. Cleveland is next on the list of losers with the 5th worst record. The Cavs are back to the mess they were before they won the lottery and drafted Lebron James who showed Cleveland what winning was like, but never could end the curse that lives in the city of Cleveland and he moved on the South Beach. They won last year ironically with the pick they acquired from the Clippers and not based on their worst record in the league. They look to do the unthinkable double like the Orlando Magic were able to pull off. The Nets sit in the 6th position as they look to say good bye to New Jersey and likely Deron Williams this off-season and hello to Brooklyn with no real stars to speak of. The Raptors check in next tied with the Golden State Warriors just a half game behind the Nets, with the big TANKAPOLOOZA game on Thursday on the horizon. The Pistons round out the list of teams in this mess all with in 3 games of each other. Any win for them is a death blow at this point.

So that makes today's game with the Raptors and Pistons significant, but also likely painful to watch. All of that said it might look highly entertaining in comparison to what lies ahead with the Nets and Raptors on Thursday. If you took a nap till Friday and just woke up to see where the Raptors did end up finishing that might not be a bad plan. Seeing as that is likely not a realistic option for me, I will watch and be confused on what exactly I should be rooting for in these last three games. I honestly don't know at this point. So, I will watch and see what happens. Next year at this time if the Raptors are in this same awkward position it will have been a disaster of a season. Expectations for the coming off-season and next season in my view have already become too high. The Raptors have done a horrible job in managing expectations. The reason they have, is because if they didn't, who would want to watch this team next season and people might actually be talking about how bad this season has been even though it is an improvement over last season. The Raptors are heading in the right direction, but the speed they will be expected to go in that direction may not match the reality. Bryan Colangelo has an entire off-season to change my mind. He likely is not going to waste anytime either. When the Raptors and Nets game is done, I expect Bryan Colangelo will be on his cellphone or blackberry with in 5 minutes looking to make some moves. The trick will be finding some partners that are in as big a hurry as he is to get to work on building his roster for next season. One thing that likely will not be on the table is the Raptors draft pick even if they do the unthinkable and actually win the last 3 games of the season.

Reverse Standings Battle In Motown

Raptors and Pistons hook up in a battle in Detroit where the loser may in fact be the winner in the end. If you subscribe to the whole tank philosophy this is a huge game tonight in Detroit. Vital to who might win or loss regardless could be determined by if Andrea Bargnani returns for the Raptors tonight. Raptors have been hinting at his impending return and with a game tonight, tomorrow and Tuesday it is expected that we will see Andrea back in one of those games. Looks like tomorrow could be the day. So nice of Andrea to make his comeback for the game I am covering. His return could have a major impact on the Raptors lottery odds. The Raptors were 6-7 with him in the line up and have no less than 4 teams with in a half game of each other in the reverse standings. Have a look at how it shakes out.

27th Raptors 13-26
26th Nets 14-27
T-25th Kings 14-26
T-25th Pistons 14-26

Ultimately for me it does not hold a ton of importance. If were not talking top 3 don't really think it matters to much ultimately. Here are some stats on why I really don't care that much about tanking or see the merits in it. The NBA Lottery began in 1985 since that time here are some stats to chew on.

• Team with Worst Record has won a grand total of 4 times (Only twice since 2000)
• Team with 5th worst Record has won more times with 5. (Including the Raptors in 2006)
• To be the 2nd or 3rd worst is the lucky place to be both winning 6 times
• Orlando Magic won back to back lotteries the 2nd time with just 1.52% Chance.
• Where the Raptors sit currently 4th Worst has only ever won the lottery once in 1997 for Spurs

For the record the difference between 27th and 24th is 11.9% to 4.3% or a difference of 7.6%. So it is significant but want to break down the NBA Lottery and look for patterns of trends nothing is a lock. Other than the suspect luck that seems to fall for certain teams at just the right time. Derrick Rose winding up in his home-town with Chicago with just a 1.7% chance of happening. The odds for Lebron James to go to Cleveland were much higher with 22.5% chance. In the first lottery the odds were even and Knicks walked away with Patrick Ewing with 14.29% chance.

As much as the fans and media to an extent love to focus on the topic of the lottery and tanking it really is just something to talk about more times than not. The NBA created the Lottery to try and dissuade teams from tanking. It has not dissuaded people from talking about it. One thing I will guarantee you is that not one player on Pistons or Raptors would rather lose than win tonight. Players always want to win at the end of the day. It is easy to sit back and say a team should just try and lose as much as possible. You don't have to live through it the same as players do. If you decide to watch it is no big deal. They have to show up for every game 82 normally but 66 this year. So cheer for Raptors to win or lose but one way or the other this game will have an impact for the people that are tanking their way through this season.

The DNB In the DNB

This is a new little mini blog idea. It is pretty simple really. A topic starting with D, one with N and one with B. Simple as ABC right? So let's give this a shot.

D- (Defense) It has been talked about a lot, but really it is pretty amazing what Dwane Casey has been able to produce in his first season, with all the obstacles this season has provided by it's very nature. Raptors currently rank 11th in points allowed, 9th in FG%, 19th at defending the 3. Last year the Raptors were 26th in points allowed, 29th in FG%, 28th (tied) with Utah at defending the 3. Pretty much any stat new school or old school will show you that Raptors have improved significantly on defense. Is it the system or the guy running the system? It likely is both as Dwane Casey has changed the mentality of this team and that is him as a coach. While his system has made even a guy like Jose Calderon look like an average defender at times. That is some amazing stuff to do that. So credit to Casey and if the Raptors add a few more defensive minded guys it could even get better.

N- (No More Jonas Talk Please?) One of the guys that will help improve that Defense is likely Jonas Valanciunas. Still, why the Raptors are continually throwing him out there and promoting the hall out of him I both get and also don't get. It is nothing more than simplest media trick in the book really. The art of distraction at it's finest. When you learn Magic the art of it is all about distracting the eye. Get your focus and attention away and distract you. Then suddenly where the hell did that quarter go? But here is the thing, while the Raptors are busy distracting you from the fact that they are not good. Getting you to dream of the future, they are setting this kid up for more pressure than he deserves or needs. Honestly the Raptors should know better based on their experience with Andrea Bargnani. Thanks to all of the hype for the coming of Jonas and huge expectations, what happens if he doesn't explode out of the gates? The odds in general suggest big men regardless of where they come from have a tougher time adjusting to the NBA. It will take this young man time not only to learn in the NBA but adapt to a whole new culture. So why would you create this hype and added pressure on this kid? It is irresponsible and short sighted on the part of the Raptors. There has been more than enough praise for the pick outside of the organization that this PR driven distraction was not needed or required. I hope for the sake of this kid, he can overcome this hype and deliver right away. If not people who have bought into the hype will be quick to turn on him. You don't believe me? It didn't take long for Andrea Bargnani to find his critics and it likely is part of the reason his path has been so long. He had the unfortunate situation that he was drafted first, so it was hard to avoid it. In this case, Jonas wasn't the first pick and there was no real reason to hype this kid other than to distract from this awful season and get people to buy season tickets next year. MLSE is great at filling their pockets with money that has never been a question. However, in doing that, they sometimes cost themselves in terms of that whole idea of winning.

B (Balls) As in Lottery Balls. Tired of this stupid tanking stuff. The ship has sailed. The Raptors are not tanking their way to anything better than the 4th worst record overall. Losing has an impact and you saw it in the recent Twitter outburst from Demar DeRozan. It seems to have got Demar back on the right path now though. Still, losing never does you any good at the end of the day. The Raptors need to have the odd win here and there to keep this thing heading in the right direction. While some folks won't be around, like Anthony Carter who is expected to be released, many will be. In terms of the guys like DeRozan, Ed Davis, James Johnson and others they need to see glimpses of the light at the end of the tunnel. It is not like this team is two players away from winning an NBA Championship. If you think that you really are a little crazy. So whatever comes based on your merit, take it and roll with it. Chances are in this draft you can find a good player picking anywhere in the lottery. What is also true is as far as I am concerned, there is not that Franchise Changing Superstar in this draft. Not to mention the stats on the NBA Lottery are pretty clear in that being the worst only gives you a top 4 pick guaranteed. It seldom works out for the team with that worst record. It is a moot argument at this point because there is no way you can convince me the Raptors can be worse than the Bobcats, Wizards and Hornets.

So that was it DNB in the DNB. Will it last as a feature? As long as we can keep finding topics that start with D N B it will.