Playoffs In July?

First off today there was an issue that occurred in early morning hours that rendered the Jack Armstrong Interview unplayable. I have fixed the problem and apologize to anyone that was not able to listen to it. You can hear it now here is a link to it.Thanks to a number of readers that made me aware of this problem. It has been a big couple days for the blog and thanks to all of you that have made that happen.

I have no guest today it is just me. Maybe I should interview myself? That would be odd wouldn't it? Something you might see in say the WWE? I admit that I totally forgot about Shaq hosting Raw on Monday night. But I was able to see the highlights yesterday. It was classic Shaq and I got some chuckles but WWE is not what it use to be. But the line of the night was not said by Shaq. It was said by Chris Jericho.

Jericho- " When I heard we were having the most dominant player in the NBA(As guest host of Raw) I naturally assumed it was Kobe Bryant "

Shaq could only respond by calling Jericho... Christina. That was pretty old and dated. WWE writers have gotten old and predictable. Same might be said for Shaq himself. No doubt the big man will be in the spotlight playing Robin to Lebron James as Batman. Will it work? That is one of the bigger questions heading into this NBA season.

In fact all top 4 teams in the East have made moves that they hope will upgrade their talent. Orlando has Ex-Raptor Vince Carter. Who I was reading the new NBA Live 10 when it comes out will get booed by Toronto fans in video game as well. Truly EA tries to live up to there motto of "If It's in the Game, It's in the Game". Rasheed Wallace is going to be a Celtic. Boston has had a number of trade rumours still buzzing so it is clear Danny Angie is not done. The Atlanta Hawks also have added Jamal Crawford to the mix. I think it is safe to say all 4 of these teams make the playoffs again unless something goes drastically wrong.

So that leaves 4 spots that last season were held by Miami, Chicago, Philadelphia and Detroit. All of which have done very little in terms of getting better this off-season with exception of Detroit. Philadelphia has a new coach in Eddie Jordon. But they have lost there point guard Andre Miller. Miami has not exactly been loading up to keep D-Wade happy have they? Chicago lost Ben Gordon to the Pistons and he was a big part of what they did in the playoffs. Gordon along with Charlie Villianeuva are now Pistons. But really will this help the Pistons be better? The are former teammates at UConn.

Bottom line of all of it is for Raptors to make playoffs it takes one of these teams to fall back for them to get in. Truth be told you could make a case that all 4 of these teams could miss the playoffs. If I was going to rank who is most likely going to miss out it would go like this. With most likely team at top and least likely at the bottom.

Philadelphia (Sorry Jason Kapono and Eddie Jordan)
Chicago (Sorry Chuck Swirsky)
Detroit ( Joe Dumars prays I am wrong)
Miami ( D-Wade on his own can save the Heat )

I could see easily that 3 of the 4 may not make the playoffs. If that is true who the heck moves into those spots? Well here are my 3 picks to fill out the playoff field.

Toronto Raptors ( Seriously with all the moves if they don't it is a disaster of an epic nature)
Charlotte Bobcats ( Young and up coming Bobcats. Tyson Chandler might push them over top)
Washington Wizards ( Subject to Gilbert Arenas making it to opening night )

So what will it look like (Subject To Change)

1. Cleveland
2. Boston
3. Orlando
4. Atlanta
5. Toronto
6. Washington
7. Charlotte
8. Miami

Remember when people laughed about the the Southeast Division? 4 teams in the playoffs can that be right? It could be. Washington and Charlotte have a very small margin of error for me. Detroit and the Bulls should be teams right there if they should slip. This is just a snapshot thought and things can change. As for the Raptors being 5th? It seems the right place for them. They are not better than any of the top 4. Atlanta maybe is the closest with the other 3 miles ahead.

If I change my mind on this over the summer I will let you know. If you want to doubt this hey by all means. Predictions are subjective. I will point out though that I did predict the NBA Finals last year prior to the season. Not to many folks had the Orlando Magic playing the L.A Lakers did they? I got to brag about it now because really can I successfully call it 2 years in a row? That would have some long odds I am thinking.

Raptor Moneyball

The NBA Cap has been announce and it is indeed lower. 57.7 Million with the all important tax threshold number at 69.92. Also news that the NBA warns this is only the tip of the iceberg? ESPN paints the picture for us. They conclude that this may make the Raptors chances of keeping Chris Bosh increase. I am not sure if they made that statement before or after they heard about this little number. 5 years and 50 million but we are not talking Hedo. We are talking a contract extension for not Bosh but Bargnani. To say it make my stomach do flip flops over this news is close to accurate. I mean a good half season or 3/4 of a season gets you 50 million bucks? What is next a 3 year 32 million dollar deal for Joey Graham? I joke about that, but this is no joking matter to me.

Why is Bryan spending all this money with a cap about to take a nose dive. I am sorry but I fail to see the logic. I understand you lock up Bargnani for a reasonable rate for a long time I get that. However given the dropping cap and the fact Bargnani realistically has not had back to back solid seasons yet in his NBA career. You add this to the 53 million for Hedo and the 45 + they spent on Jose. If the plan is to keep Chris Bosh it sure isn't looking that way. Where is the money to resign him? Also what else could you afford if you are able to resign him. If the drops in the ESPN Article are any where close to accurate this makes it seem bleak that Bosh could re-sign and the Raptors be competitive.

This is all under the assumption that MLSE will stick to the commitment they have always had to stay below the tax threshold which will be dropping at that same alarming rate. If the Raptors do have a long term plan that involves not being concerned with that tax threshold I would have no issue with Hedo's deal or the extension to Andrea. Both are risky to some degree but I could live with it. However does anyone seriously expect MLSE to have such a 180 in policy and suddenly go for broke. Not in the literal sense but risk a small amount of their bottom line to do this? I have no confidence or info to suggest that they would.

Some fans are just seeing the short term picture and not the long term one in my view. Let me but it in some kind of context. If you became aware that the company you were working for planned to cut jobs in the next 2 years what would you do? Would you go out and buy a new car, new house and add to your stock portfolio? Most would save out of fear they may lose there job or lose hours. So why would the Raptors go on a spending spree when they can see that their cap and budget are heading down. It does not make any sense.

Raptors better win this season because this maybe the last chance to do so in a long time unless there is some cosmic shift in the NBA Cap or the thinking at MLSE. I admit that I took economics from my high school football coach. However I don't think you need to have a vast economic background to understand that Raptors are taking some serious long term risk.

Some may conclude that Bryan Colangelo is already hard at work planing for the post Bosh era. I don't want to believe this fact but the numbers are painting a picture that sure suggests it. About the only thing that is making me think positive about the Raps is Demar Derozan. This kid was Tweeting about practice yesterday...Not a game...No Practice. Now with all due respect to AI, when a young kid is putting in work like this it gets me excited about his future. Here is hoping that Demar is rip down rims in Vegas starting Friday.

Still have yet to hear on a Hedo presser. When it goes down I will set up a live blog. Last but not least the Dallas and Marion Sign and Trade has a sticking point as you might of heard. The Mavs don't want Marcus Banks. Is Banks truly the one guy in the league that no one truly wants. He gets passed around like he has the plague. You can't help but feel bad for him.

Not in the same way you would for Michael Jackson's little girl yesterday which was truly so sad. On a much smaller stage, at about 2 years older, I spoke at my own father's funeral. The courage in that little girl to do that is far greater than any NBA player. Stuff like that puts all this basketball talk, good, bad or indifferent into prospective. I am still upset about all of this but have it in the proper prospective.

Justin Walsh Back In The Starting 5

So off the top Happy Canada Day. Our guest today is not Canadian but he does like Canadians. Justin Walsh is back to visit us here at the Dino Nation Blog. He was hanging out with us on the live blog of the NBA Draft on The Score and he was great to have around to help out in the late hours in round 2. We look back a little bit on the draft and talk a lot about Demar DeRozan. He had said the stories about Demar not wanted to come to Canada were bogus. We would learn that he was correct at several points along the way. Be it when Demar worked out for the Raptors, When he told Holly Mackenzie at the draft and when he said it at his press conference. Safe to say Demar likes us. The more I learn about him the more I can say the feeling is mutual. I also enjoy talking with Justin. So much so that I give myself a lot of work editing the conversation down. He is a very knowledgeable guy far beyond his years. I think that this was mentioned in his first appearance but worth repeating he has been covering basketball since the age of 17. So with all that said here is Justin Walsh and myself talking ball.

B.C Speaks, We Listen And Trades Happen

Why wait for tomorrow when you can do it tonight? Right? So 1,2 and 3 trades go down. But first this is the Dino Nation Blog and Bryan Colangelo was front and center for the media today. Colangelo has always been a pretty straight shooter and today was no exception. So what did we learn? From the mouth of B.C barring something totally unforeseen the next Raptor will be one of 5 guys.

Jrue Holiday (UCLA) - Expected back for a second look prior to Thursday. Just my take they are trying to convince themselves he is better than Jonny Flynn. But I am here to say no way. Size may matter but heart matters more. That being said Eric Smith in his chat today was high on him and thinks Raps are as well.

Demar DeRozan (USC)- Let's call him the people's choice. I remember another people's choice. Ed O'Bannon. Not saying Demar DeRozan is going to have that awful a career. Let's all hope so if the Raps to take him. But I am not digging this private workout against no one. I am just not digging when people say Vince Carter and this guy in the same sentence. They mean in potential talent not in attitude. I have been told and read he is a tremendous kid and I have no doubt of that. But 19 with upside is not making me get as excited as everyone else. But he could indeed be the top guy on the board for the Raps at 9.

Gearld Henderson (Duke)- Love the player hate the school. I have seen him play and I like what he can do. If I am endorsing anyone that played for Duke they have to be good. Henderson just seems to me a guy that I can trust is going to be good. I am more confident in what I am getting in him than I am convinced in what exactly I get in DeRozan. Here is something to chew on. Henderson is more ready now to play in NBA. Where have I heard that before? Brandon Roy was the most draft ready and some guy named Bargnani was drafted for his upside. Just something to think about when you compare DeRozan and Henderson. The gap in Mock drafts may make it look like these players are not close at all. But reality is that I think they are.

James Johnson (Wake Forest)- B .C likes this guy. At least he keeps saying his name. But I am not sold on this guy. He does have a black belt so please don't hurt me. He does seem like a guy that would help on defensive side of the ball. But I just don't see it even though draft express has replaced him as the Raptors pick instead of DeRozan. Seems I am not the only one not as high on DeRozan as he has be on a steady decline and now sits at #11 on their draft board going to play with the Nets and if he is V.C like he would get to see the real V.C or what is left of him.

Jonny Flynn (Syracuse)- I am putting my one year streak of being right on the Raptors draft choice on the line with Jonny Flynn. If you read this blog on a regular basis you know how much I think of the point guard position and it's importance. I also like small scrappy guys like T.J Ford, Rajon Rondo, D.J Augustine and my new fav Aaron Brooks. Jonny Flynn is an athletic freak of nature despite his lack of size. The only thing bigger might be this kid's heart. To but that type of player in a gym with Alvin Williams...OH I LIKE IT AND I LIKE IT A LOT. Jonny Flynn is going to be not just good but great. In a point guard heavy draft I am convinced that he will be in the debate for the best in this class at the point. I am more willing to bet on Jonny than Roko and after last season I am not willing to go into another season without a legit back-up. Jonny Flynn is more than legit and if Roko does turn out ok...can you say trade Jose? It could happen. But regardless of that Flynn is a guy I trust if Calderon goes down like last year. The kid flat out wants to win and he showed you that in the NCAA post season at the Big East Tournament and the NCAA Tournament. There was a tiny point guard named Damon Stoudamire that Raptors fans booed. He turned out to be rookie of the year. Don't make the mistake of booing Jonny Flynn. He will make you sorry for doing it. Trust me.

More on what Bryan had to say tomorrow. But on to the deals....

On To the Trades

To The Spurs- Richard Jefferson

Can't stand the guy and trust me this is not the answer to save the Spurs. Jefferson has done NOTHING since Jason Kidd left Jersey. I admit that I have never liked R.J even before he insulted Toronto fans in the playoff series with the Nets. I think he has been an under achiever for the majority of his career. Over hyped and not as good as everyone says he is.

To The Bucks- Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto (For a few hours)

Said to be a cap move for the Bucks. But they add some toughness and I actually like this deal for the Bucks. At least I did when they were keeping Oberto. But as you will see he was not a Buck for long.

To The Pistons- Fabricio Oberto

Minor move but I like it for Pistons.

To The Bucks- Amir Johnson

saving money seems to be a theme for the Bucks.

To The Wizards- Randy Foye and Mike Miller

Interesting not sure what to make of it but Miller could be a nice fit and add some 3 point shooting pop. Foye will never be Roy and a fresh start can only do him good.

To The T-Wolves- Etan Thomas, Oleksiy Pecherov and Darius Songaila and the fifth overall pick in Thursday’s NBA draft

Why main question is why did the T-Wolves feel the need to move up. What does this mean for their other picks in the draft? All solid questions. On the players they take back minus the draft choice I don't like the trade but add the pick and we will see.

So it is almost Midnight do you know where your favourite NBA Star is? He might not be there in the morning. The moves and trades are starting to heat up getting ready for Thursday. So hope you enjoyed this special late edition of the blog.

NBA Draft Idol

I am not sure how many times Chris Bosh has been mentioned in the Dino Nation Blog. I am thinking it is a lot. That is why I was sad yesterday to learn Kelly Clarkson has likely never read the Dino Nation Blog. She was on Much Music yesterday after Bosh had appeared on the show earlier. Now the fact that both Clarkson and Bosh are from Texas I thought the two might have got to know each other the night before at the awards. Guess not, because when Clarkson came on the V.J dude who I have no idea who he is, was talking about Bosh. Clarkson interjects that she has no idea who Chris Bosh is. I guess that just proves that as famous as anyone thinks they might be it is all relative. So if Kelly wants to learn about Chris hopefully she reads the DNB. I just found this to be really funny and a cute way to kick things off today with nothing to do about the draft.

I am no American Idol, not a multi time NBA All Star either. But the growth of the Dino Nation Blog is always humbling to me. The fact I have more than 400 followers on Twitter( @dinonationblog ) is something. I work very hard at what I am doing and it is great that I get so many folks that take the time to say they enjoy the Dino Nation Blog. That is one of the reasons I am always working hard to make the Dino Nation Blog bigger and better each day. I have some big plans for this off-season for the DNB. I hope they all come together. When they become closer to reality I will share with you what to expect. So even thought Kelly Clarkson may not know who I am and lots of others. I am happy and humbled at just how many people do. It really is a thrill when I talk with anyone that knows the blog and enjoys it.

As for the draft on Thursday really is there anything left that I have not said or anyone else has not said at this point? If the Raptors do not draft Demar Derozan or Jonny Flynn at this point it would be a shock to me and to many I would imagine. But anything can happen on a draft night and changes can alter not just the Raptors plans but anyone in the draft. I have been convinced that if the Raptors do not walk away from this draft with 2 players it will be a failure. At least in my eyes.

The real problem in this draft is I don't think there is one franchise player in the draft. Not even Blake Griffin to me will end up being a franchise player. Not that he can not be the best player on a bad team. But that is not a franchise player is it? It makes me wonder just what people are thinking when they talk about trading Bosh right now. O.K so you do that. Who is your franchise player? You think you are getting one back in the trade give your head a shake. So who is it? Not Jose Calderon. He may be a solid player but he has yet to establish himself as a starter in some ways. He has never establish much in terms of success as a leader. If your answer is Andrea Bargnani. I will need to see it to believe it. I fear that the day Bosh is traded Andrea Bargnani will have attention shift to him and cave to that pressure. When Vince Carter was traded Bosh was not even fully ready to be the franchise player. If he wasn't how on earth can anyone think Andrea is?

But what this draft can offer the Raptors is 2 options to fill spots on a team that lacked talent on the bench and had a glaring lack of depth. Had someone leave a comment yesterday that is would be a mistake for the Raptors to draft Jonny Flynn. That is not true unless you believe that Roko Ukic or Marcus Banks can be your back up point guard. Anyone think that? I will but Jonny Flynn against either option and he will school both. Let's not forget that the draft is just a part of an overall puzzle. There is no reason to think that if Flynn is not drafted other moves would not follow.

Details still to come but I can guarantee you that I will be liveblogging for the NBA Draft. So plan to hang out with the Dino Blogger for your NBA Draft when I have the details to share I will post them in the blog and elsewhere. Just 2 more days to answers.

Welcome To The Most Important Off-Season In Raptor History?

So once again congrats to the L.A Lakers on their 15th NBA Title. Congrats to Orlando for making it to their second Finals in franchise history. The Toronto Raptors are still trying to make Finals #1 and win title #1. In fact the Raptors have not even made a Conference Finals. As the Raptors enter into the 15th season in the NBA they have far more questions than answers. Some will look to the teams in the finals for perhaps part of the answers. Is it realistic to think the Raptors could land a Hedo Turkoglu or a Trevor Ariza to join the Raptors? I am not as convinced that the Micheal Jordan of Turkey would be worth the dollar figure that it would take to bring him here. Hedo can be a fantastic player and was a big part of the Magic's run to the Finals. On a lighter note just for the Pizza Pizza ad that Hedo could no doubt get if he came to the Raptors it might be worth it. For whatever reason people think it is more possible to see Hedo suit up for the Raptors. There always seems to be this feeling that Raptors are more appealing for euro based players. In part that might be because of Maurizio Gherardini his reputation in Europe is huge with players and he is highly respected. I still do not think that Hedo for the price it would take is going to be a right fit. The Raptors just unloaded Jason Kapono who from the day the ink dried on his contract he could never live up to the number that was on it. Sad to say that I think Hedo would become a victim of that same thing. There is the case to be made in these tough economic times that free agents like Hedo will not get as big a contract as we might think. However to convince a top free agent can the Raptors not have to over pay to some degree to bring someone in? I am not against that if it is for the right guy. The Magic did that with both Lewis and Pietrus and for whatever you think of their contracts they were big parts of what made the Magic an Eastern Conference Champion as was Hedo.

But if the Raptors are going to gamble and over pay to get anyone in this free agent class my first choice is not Hedo Turkoglu. My pick would be Trevor Ariza. The Lakers are going to have to make a choice between Lamar Odom and Ariza and I think that the Lakers will choose Odom and not Ariza. Ideally they would like to keep both but that seems to be unrealistic unless one or both is willing to take less money for the chance to repeat as Champions with the Lakers. That is possible but with a CBA ending that will be totally different ball game and because of that I can not imagine to many players willing to bite the bullet and take less with that great unknown hanging out there. I have made the argument the Ariza more than any other has used these playoffs to improve his status as a free agent. I think he makes a solid fit for the Raptors as he has good to great defensive skills. He has improved his 3 point shot a lot. He also has the ability to drive and score and I think given the options the Raptors have that Ariza could be the best answer to their questions at the wing spot. You can make the case he also has room to develop and become better. I am not convinced you can say that about Hedo. Bryan Colangelo would have to do a hell of a sales job to get him to come. Just because the Raptors might offer the most cash to him does not mean he signs on the dotted line. But if he could convince Ariza to come north of the border it could be a huge score for the Raptors.

Shawn Marion, Ron Artest and Lamar Odom are all great players but they all may have reached a point that they are at or beyond the peak of their NBA Career. Ariza still has some steps to take to improve to his max level as a player. The worst thing that could happen for the Raptors is to put dollars into a player who skills may fall off at some point during the contract they sign. The NBA Cap is not going to be heading up in the next couple years. It is going to be going down and cap space and how you spend your dollars is going to be more important than it ever has before.

The entire concepts and how people approach things is about to take a major shift. Things like cap space are going to take on a greater importance than ever before. The question of do players want to win or do they want to make money is also going to become larger as things go along as well. If players truly want to win they can always sign a MLE(Mid Level Exception) with a team that is a contender. However if they are looking to make the most possible they will have to consider other options. The Raptors could be one of those options and not a bad one at that. Chris Bosh is an all star player and when healthy Jose Calderon can be a great distributor of the basketball.

I have always said that I am not afraid of Chris Bosh leaving and I do not agree that if he walks for nothing it is the worst thing that could happen to the Toronto Raptors. Bryan Colangelo points out that Bosh would more than likely have to come back to the Raptors. Chris Bosh wants max money and I am guessing the max amount of years along with that. He is not going to leave 30 million dollars on the table to sign with a team on his own. So as much as people may think Chris Bosh holds all the cards in this thing he just may not. At the end of the day Chris Bosh will need the Raptors to get what he wants and if he does not play ball with Toronto he losses 30 million bucks. Chris is a smart guy and no way that happens. So Colangelo has basically 3 options beyond the rush to trade Bosh.

Re-sign Bosh to Raptors if he wants to stay for Max Money.

Sign and Trade Bosh for the best deal possible.

Or just let Bosh walk and have his current salary to use in 2010 Free Agent Market.

People will say but remember the Chicago Bulls having all that cap room and no one willing to come there? I do remember that, but like I said these are changing times. Cap space just like something traded on a stock market is going up in value. I am sure people have noticed that the price of gas is on the rise. That is because the price of oil is so it impacts what we pay at the pumps. It is a simple case of supply and demand. Let's just say that the NBA Cap and all of the numbers tied to it drop by 2 million dollars. That takes 60 million dollars out of the available money to spend on free agents. The MLE is tied to that cap number so that goes down as well. Tax Threshold the whole nine yards comes down. Suddenly that team with Cap space and room looks a lot more attractive does it not? This is just basic economics here. Cap space is going to become more of value than it ever has since the NBA introduced a cap into the mix. I am confident I am right about this. So if the Raptors have that cap room they can indeed be a player and not be totally lost should Chris Bosh decide to play elsewhere. Also it is not like a player is having to go to a wasteland like a Memphis or a few other places on the NBA map that people are not fans of as a city. Toronto generally is a place that the players like and enjoy as a city.

Still will this blog stop the 2948 (estimate likely a higher number) Chris Bosh trade rumours that I will hear from happening? Not a chance and maybe that is why I am not looking forward to this summer. You must consider this as well. There is no way on earth the Raptors are getting full value for Chris Bosh from anyone for what will amount to a season of having him under contract. Bosh is not going to lock himself in to any team and he is going to go to free agency or make some sign and trade happen. Even if Bosh were traded to play with a D-Wade let's say. Who is to say he does not pick up and head to play with the Cavs the next year? That is the major reason why you will never get anything that comes close to matching Bosh's value. Build a team around the guy and let the chips fall where they may.

I understand not a lot of people will buy into this. But hey who believed me when I said Orlando would play the Lakers at the start of the year? Hell I am not sure if I believed me on that one. Roy Hibbert was the pick of the Toronto Raptors. I called that too. I also said it would be a major mistake to trade T.J Ford. Think I got that right as well. Orlando fans should take note of that by the way. You could have a great duo with Nelson and Alston. It can work even though there maybe some bumps in the road. Stick with it. Anyway the off-season is here, and no matter who is right or wrong the one thing we can all agree on is the fact that major changes are needed and coming to the Toronto Raptors.

First Shoe Has Dropped? Kapono For Evans?

Doug Smith in the Toronto Star is reporting that the Raptors have made a trade. If this turns out to be true Bryan Colangelo truly is amazing.

To Philly:

Jason Kapono

To Toronto:

Reggie Evans

This trade makes a lot of sense for both teams if it is in fact the real deal. Raptors need toughness and a rebounder and Evans is that on both accounts. Philly in bringing in Eddie Jordan as the coach and his offensive system need a 3 pointer shooter to make that offensive run effectively. So it does make a ton of sense for both teams.

The Fan 590 is also now reporting this story and it looks like this is a done deal.

It is confirmed on Raptors.com

Raptors have called a press conference for 4pm today.