5/16/11

Picking and Playing The Lotto.

Happy Monday people, before we get to some draft lottery stuff we need get our Conference Finals Picks on the record. So.....

James and Ryan both see it the same....Heat and Thunder both win in 6 games.

I am 8 wins away from nailing the finals in the pre-season. I had said it would be a Thunder vs Heat final long before it became the cool thing to do. But that being said the South Beach Heat took it on the chin yesterday. After a good first quarter the Heat got steam rolled despite a great game from Chris Bosh who was the games leading scorer with 30 points going 12-18 from field and 6-6 at the line. D-Wade and LBJ only combined for 33 though and Derrick Rose the MVP had 28. Bulls took it in Game 1 by a score of 102-83. OKC and Dallas tip up game 1 of the Western Conference Final after the Draft Lottery Tuesday.

So speaking of that Draft Lottery it is time for the DNB Draft Lottery Simulation. We are going to simulate the Draft Lottery 100 times and give you the results. You can give it a go yourself as many times as you like thanks to the folks at ESPN. Here is a link to simulate your own Draft Lottery.

What Pick Raptors Will Get?

  • 1st Pick- 18%
  • 2nd Pick- 17%
  • 3rd Pick- 17%
  • 4th Pick- 21%
  • 5th Pick- 24%
  • 6th Pick- 3%

The Raptors in our Simulation of 100 times beat there actual Lottery Odds of 15.6%. Most believe in the fan base if the Raptors landed that first pick they would select Kyrie Irving but according to ESPN and our 100 Simulations using there Lottery Simulator there is 0 outcomes where the Raptors land Irving and they also say the Raptors will select Derrick Williams out of Arizona with the first pick. He would fill a need for Raptors at Small Forward likely there biggest position of need. But in school he was a power forward and you would be asking him to change positions. In our 100 Simulations there is only 4 players the Raptors would select. Here they are with the % of times they came up as the Raptors pick.


Of note even at 6 spot the Raptors would not take Kemba Walker. It seems obvious that ESPN feels the Raptors are not interested in drafting a point guard position. But many closer to this team would tend to disagree with that assessment. While it is true that Raptors do need a small forward it seems unlikely to me that they would leave Irving on the board at number 1.

With all due respect to ESPN when I look at draft my first stop is Draft Express and here is where they Rank the 4 choices ESPN thinks will be Raptors just based on the best available talent.

  • Williams (2nd)
  • Kanter (8th)
  • Knight (5th)
  • Lenoard (11th)

While Irving is Ranked #1 and Kemba Walker a surprising 3rd. If we base it on the Draft Express Rankings here is 1-6 the possible places the Raptors could select.

  • 1. Irving (PG Duke)
  • 2. Williams (PF Arizona)
  • 3. Walker (PG UConn)
  • 4. Valanciunas (C- Lithuania)
  • 5. Knight ( PG/SG Kentucky)
  • 6. Vesely ( SF/PF Czech Republic)

However you care to break it down there is no Lebron James or Blake Griffin walking across that stage in New York regardless of who wins the lottery. If you are wondering about Tristan Thompson and how the Raptors could find him in the draft. It would take a pick that is higher than 11 according to ESPN unless the Bucks hit the Lottery because he was the selection of the Bucks every time it seemed when I was running the simulations. According to Draft Express Thompson ranks 14. So if Raptors were trading down to land the home grown talent it would take a pick still in the lottery to do it most likely. But it is unlikely the Raptors would do that you would think given Thompson is an undersized power forward and that is not a need for this Raptor team. If the Raptors do go point guard in this draft what will that mean for the chances of Myck Kabongo being a Raptor next season? Make those odds slim you would think. Kabongo is likely on the same path as Thompson and Joesph who both played just a year at Texas and then bolted for the Draft. If the Raptors want a shot at him they would need to be back in this Lottery next year that promises to have a much more talented cast of characters.

So get your popcorn ready for tomorrow night and watch 30 minutes of bad T.V to find out where the Raptors will be picking. As for the who they will be picking or if they even keep the pick that will play out over the next month or so. If you are looking for a saviour out of this draft you will be very disappointed.







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