Raptor Moneyball

The NBA Cap has been announce and it is indeed lower. 57.7 Million with the all important tax threshold number at 69.92. Also news that the NBA warns this is only the tip of the iceberg? ESPN paints the picture for us. They conclude that this may make the Raptors chances of keeping Chris Bosh increase. I am not sure if they made that statement before or after they heard about this little number. 5 years and 50 million but we are not talking Hedo. We are talking a contract extension for not Bosh but Bargnani. To say it make my stomach do flip flops over this news is close to accurate. I mean a good half season or 3/4 of a season gets you 50 million bucks? What is next a 3 year 32 million dollar deal for Joey Graham? I joke about that, but this is no joking matter to me.

Why is Bryan spending all this money with a cap about to take a nose dive. I am sorry but I fail to see the logic. I understand you lock up Bargnani for a reasonable rate for a long time I get that. However given the dropping cap and the fact Bargnani realistically has not had back to back solid seasons yet in his NBA career. You add this to the 53 million for Hedo and the 45 + they spent on Jose. If the plan is to keep Chris Bosh it sure isn't looking that way. Where is the money to resign him? Also what else could you afford if you are able to resign him. If the drops in the ESPN Article are any where close to accurate this makes it seem bleak that Bosh could re-sign and the Raptors be competitive.

This is all under the assumption that MLSE will stick to the commitment they have always had to stay below the tax threshold which will be dropping at that same alarming rate. If the Raptors do have a long term plan that involves not being concerned with that tax threshold I would have no issue with Hedo's deal or the extension to Andrea. Both are risky to some degree but I could live with it. However does anyone seriously expect MLSE to have such a 180 in policy and suddenly go for broke. Not in the literal sense but risk a small amount of their bottom line to do this? I have no confidence or info to suggest that they would.

Some fans are just seeing the short term picture and not the long term one in my view. Let me but it in some kind of context. If you became aware that the company you were working for planned to cut jobs in the next 2 years what would you do? Would you go out and buy a new car, new house and add to your stock portfolio? Most would save out of fear they may lose there job or lose hours. So why would the Raptors go on a spending spree when they can see that their cap and budget are heading down. It does not make any sense.

Raptors better win this season because this maybe the last chance to do so in a long time unless there is some cosmic shift in the NBA Cap or the thinking at MLSE. I admit that I took economics from my high school football coach. However I don't think you need to have a vast economic background to understand that Raptors are taking some serious long term risk.

Some may conclude that Bryan Colangelo is already hard at work planing for the post Bosh era. I don't want to believe this fact but the numbers are painting a picture that sure suggests it. About the only thing that is making me think positive about the Raps is Demar Derozan. This kid was Tweeting about practice yesterday...Not a game...No Practice. Now with all due respect to AI, when a young kid is putting in work like this it gets me excited about his future. Here is hoping that Demar is rip down rims in Vegas starting Friday.

Still have yet to hear on a Hedo presser. When it goes down I will set up a live blog. Last but not least the Dallas and Marion Sign and Trade has a sticking point as you might of heard. The Mavs don't want Marcus Banks. Is Banks truly the one guy in the league that no one truly wants. He gets passed around like he has the plague. You can't help but feel bad for him.

Not in the same way you would for Michael Jackson's little girl yesterday which was truly so sad. On a much smaller stage, at about 2 years older, I spoke at my own father's funeral. The courage in that little girl to do that is far greater than any NBA player. Stuff like that puts all this basketball talk, good, bad or indifferent into prospective. I am still upset about all of this but have it in the proper prospective.


  1. One thing I don't get is the negative comments about Bargs?

    I fail to see how anyone who actually attends games doesn't believe the Raps just stole this guy on the cheap for the next 5 years.

    Unfortunately, Mitchell was a cancer to the development of young players on the Raps and is likely the direct cause of Joey's total lack of development/probable unemployment/minimum contract status. If Mitchell hadn't been fired, Bargs wouldn't have had a chance to develop - not skill but confidence!

    Its too bad if BC can't talk Dallas into taking Banks, but its hard to feel sorry for the young guy. He'll just have to comfort himself with the $20m he's made in his short career! I'm sure he'll bounce back.

    Still waiting for announcements.


  2. If you're going to bad mouth someone for financial mistakes they make you should show what you mean through statistical of financial analysis.
    You make many assumptions, including that the cap will continue to fall or remain at the lower dollar fugiures. History has proven that the cap will cycle back up.
    If you understand the CBA, you'll know that Toronto has Bosh's bird rights so they can sign him over the cap. Once done four raptors will make about $50M. Right in line with many other teams who are still able to fill out there roster.
    Obviously you don't like what BC is doing but at least make strong arguments for why it's wrong, not this fluffy BS.

  3. All I am saying is he has yet to but together solid back to back seasons and I truly fear what happens to him should Bosh be out the door. It could end up looking like a steal at the end of the day. I just don't see what the rush was to sign him. You might have been able to get him at a cheaper number if you waited.

    I could be wrong but it just did not sit well with me. Steve is hardcore on comments in on the daily. Good to see.

  4. 1. It saves you from having another Bosh-like problem with Bargnani when he breaks out this season.
    2. He's only been in the league three years... how is it reasonable to expect him to have strung together back-to-back "solid" seasons? He had a great rookie season, the (very common) sophmore dip, and a breakout second-half of his third season once he was able to start... If anything, we should be happy the first half reduced his overall production or we'd be seeing a much higher contract number.
    3. If Bosh leaves, to address your comment reply, Bargnani will actually get to play his natural position... he'll just get better.

  5. bargs wont take a step back after taking a huge leap forward last season he would have put together a amazing season if he was starting from the begining of last season but J.O was there and sam didnt show any confidence in him. i think bargs will have a monster year this year and if bosh leaves so be it bargs can be the pf and we would get some good assets in return bosh isnt like lebron wade or kobe we wouldnt die without him.

  6. Must have been very hard for you as well James.

    Re: Bosh. What helps is that the max contract is a % of the cap. Some posters have said that Bosh will want $20M. He can't get it. If, for example, the cap is $53M, Bosh will get $15.9M maximum no matter where he signs. What's great is that only we get to offer an extra year as well as 10.5% increases (think others can offer 8%). So its not as bad as a cap killer. And we can go about the "salary" cap - its just the luxury tax where we get into a problem. I think you have another ~12M before hitting that cap.

    On Barg/Turk I see your concerns. If we were to project out, I would guess Bargs looks cheap yrs 3-5 and Turk looks exp. If you view them together though, you're probably satisfied with the production of them viewed together. Plus, you add some stability to the franchise for the first time - ever. (Esp adding Jose's deal to the mix)

  7. Thanks Liston and on the first point it was a tough thing to do. A lot tougher than people who disagree with you over basketball. That stuff is easy to take in comparison.

    Anyway I just do not have the complete confidence in Bargnani that others do. If Bargnani ever becomes the major player on this team I think personally he would fold to some extent to that pressure. It is just an opinion that I have always held. Time will tell if I am right.

    But does it not seem odd that a guy that was for most fan trade bait now is getting 50 million a season for 5 years? Hopefully all of you folks are right and I am wrong.

    I have deep concerns about the economics of the NBA and the decline of Cap numbers.

    Hey as it says in the article if MLSE makes a choice to say the heck with Tax Threshold and are willing to spend regardless of numbers in future fine. But no one sees that do they?

    They need a bench for this to work to this point they are a few players shy of even having a 8 or 9 man rotation.

    Also I just have never been in love with this whole Euro-ball idea. Personally I do not get inspired by guys like Bargnani, Turkoglu and even Calderon to some degree.

    At the end of the day I always want the franchise to do well for everyone's sake including my own.

  8. Anyone still believe that there won't be lots of minimum salary talent available this year?

    The FA signing silence is deafening!

    Dinoblogger, how about a look at who might be available that could fill some holes in the Raps line-up?


  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

  10. I'll put it in the suggestion box. Likely going to have Hedo tomorrow and Raps kick of SL on Friday. But good idea for the weekend.